Colston LovelandorJake Ferguson?
Week 8 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Colston Loveland
Colston Loveland outscores Jake Ferguson in 56% of simulations.
Jake Ferguson still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Colston Loveland is the better bet, not a sure thing. Colston Loveland projects 1.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 8. Jake Ferguson has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (26% more than average to TEs); Colston Loveland faces the Seattle Seahawks (10% fewer than average to TEs). Colston Loveland still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 6.4
- Ceiling
- 17.7
- Big game (15+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 5):
- 40%
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 13.3
- Big game (15+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 5):
- 45%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Colston LovelandTE, CHI, Mon, Nov 2, 8:15 p.m. ET | Jake FergusonTE, DAL, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.2 | 6.8 |
| PPR projection | 10.1 | 8.7 |
| Standard projection | 6.3 | 5.0 |
| Rank this week | TE13 | TE17 |
| Matchup | at SEA | vs ARI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.1 | 5.1 |
| Last season per game | 8.5 | 8.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 56% |
| Trade value | — | — |