Jake FergusonorPat Freiermuth?
Week 10 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Pat Freiermuth
Pat Freiermuth outscores Jake Ferguson in 58% of simulations.
Jake Ferguson still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Pat Freiermuth is the better bet, not a sure thing. Pat Freiermuth projects 1.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Pat Freiermuth has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (39% more than average to TEs); Jake Ferguson faces the San Francisco 49ers (3% more than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 12.9
- Big game (15+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 5):
- 47%
- Floor
- 1.8
- Median
- 6.9
- Ceiling
- 17.6
- Big game (15+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 5):
- 35%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jake FergusonTE, DAL, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET | Pat FreiermuthTE, PIT, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.6 | 8.5 |
| PPR projection | 8.2 | 10.1 |
| Standard projection | 5.0 | 6.9 |
| Rank this week | TE21 | TE10 |
| Matchup | vs SF | at CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.6 | 8.3 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 6.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 34% | 53% |
| Trade value | — | — |