Jake FergusonorMike Gesicki?
Week 9 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Mike Gesicki
Mike Gesicki outscores Jake Ferguson in 69% of simulations.
Jake Ferguson still comes out ahead in the other 31%, so Mike Gesicki is the better bet, not a sure thing. These are their next games: Jake Ferguson in Week 9, Mike Gesicki in Week 10. Mike Gesicki projects 3.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. The matchups don't separate them: Mike Gesicki faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (9% more than average to TEs), Jake Ferguson faces the Indianapolis Colts (11% more than average to TEs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Mike Gesicki wins 64%. Jake Ferguson is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.1
- Median
- 4.5
- Ceiling
- 12.1
- Big game (15+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 5):
- 55%
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 7.8
- Ceiling
- 17.1
- Big game (15+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 5):
- 28%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jake FergusonTE, DAL, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Mike GesickiTE, CIN, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.7 | 9.0 |
| PPR projection | 7.3 | 10.3 |
| Standard projection | 4.2 | 7.6 |
| Rank this week | TE25 | Not ranked |
| Matchup | at IND | vs PIT |
| Injury | Questionable | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.1 | 11.4 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 4.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 56% | 68% |
| Trade value | — | — |