Dallas GoedertorMike Gesicki?
Week 5 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Dallas Goedert
Dallas Goedert outscores Mike Gesicki in 56% of simulations.
Mike Gesicki still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Dallas Goedert is the better bet, not a sure thing. Dallas Goedert projects 1.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Mike Gesicki has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (28% more than average to TEs); Dallas Goedert faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (2% fewer than average to TEs). Dallas Goedert still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.0
- Median
- 8.6
- Ceiling
- 19.5
- Big game (15+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 5):
- 24%
- Floor
- 2.4
- Median
- 7.4
- Ceiling
- 17.1
- Big game (15+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 5):
- 31%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dallas GoedertTE, PHI, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET | Mike GesickiTE, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.3 | 8.8 |
| PPR projection | 12.0 | 10.4 |
| Standard projection | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Rank this week | TE5 | TE9 |
| Matchup | at JAX | at MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.3 | 13.0 |
| Last season per game | 10.3 | 4.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 25% | 62% |
| Trade value | 20 | — |