Pat FreiermuthorT.J. Hockenson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean T.J. Hockenson
T.J. Hockenson outscores Pat Freiermuth in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Pat Freiermuth comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean T.J. Hockenson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. T.J. Hockenson projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: T.J. Hockenson faces the New Orleans Saints (8% more than average to TEs), Pat Freiermuth faces the Indianapolis Colts (10% more than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 5.9
- Ceiling
- 15.1
- Big game (15+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 5):
- 43%
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 6.7
- Ceiling
- 15.0
- Big game (15+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 5):
- 34%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Pat FreiermuthTE, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | T.J. HockensonTE, MIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.3 | 7.8 |
| PPR projection | 8.9 | 10.2 |
| Standard projection | 5.7 | 5.4 |
| Rank this week | TE15 | TE11 |
| Matchup | vs IND | at NO |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.0 | 9.1 |
| Last season per game | 6.2 | 5.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 75% | 83% |
| Trade value | — | — |