T.J. HockensonorTucker Kraft?
Week 5 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Tucker Kraft
Tucker Kraft outscores T.J. Hockenson in 55% of simulations.
T.J. Hockenson still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Tucker Kraft is the better bet, not a sure thing. Tucker Kraft projects 1.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. T.J. Hockenson has the better matchup against the New Orleans Saints (8% more than average to TEs); Tucker Kraft faces the Chicago Bears (20% fewer than average to TEs). Tucker Kraft still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Tucker Kraft wins 62%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 6.7
- Ceiling
- 15.0
- Big game (15+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 5):
- 34%
- Floor
- 2.4
- Median
- 7.7
- Ceiling
- 17.2
- Big game (15+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 5):
- 30%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | T.J. HockensonTE, MIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tucker KraftTE, GB, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.8 | 9.1 |
| PPR projection | 10.2 | 10.9 |
| Standard projection | 5.4 | 7.4 |
| Rank this week | TE11 | TE8 |
| Matchup | at NO | vs CHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.1 | 7.2 |
| Last season per game | 5.8 | 12.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 83% | 92% |
| Trade value | — | 19 |