Dalton SchultzorJake Ferguson?
Week 10 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz outscores Jake Ferguson in 55% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jake Ferguson comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Dalton Schultz, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Dalton Schultz projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. The matchups don't separate them: Dalton Schultz faces the Cleveland Browns (average to TEs), Jake Ferguson faces the San Francisco 49ers (3% more than average to TEs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Jake Ferguson is the pick at 50%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 5.9
- Ceiling
- 12.8
- Big game (15+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 5):
- 41%
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 12.9
- Big game (15+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 5):
- 47%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dalton SchultzTE, HOU, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jake FergusonTE, DAL, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.9 | 6.6 |
| PPR projection | 9.1 | 8.2 |
| Standard projection | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Rank this week | TE20 | TE23 |
| Matchup | at CLE | vs SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.7 | 5.6 |
| Last season per game | 8.0 | 8.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 44% | 34% |
| Trade value | — | — |