Dalton SchultzorJake Ferguson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz outscores Jake Ferguson in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jake Ferguson comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Dalton Schultz, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Dalton Schultz projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Dalton Schultz has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (1% more than average to TEs); Jake Ferguson faces the Houston Texans (9% fewer than average to TEs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Jake Ferguson is the pick at 52%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.8
- Median
- 7.7
- Ceiling
- 16.6
- Big game (15+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 5):
- 27%
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 7.2
- Ceiling
- 16.3
- Big game (15+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 5):
- 33%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dalton SchultzTE, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jake FergusonTE, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.0 | 8.6 |
| PPR projection | 11.7 | 10.5 |
| Standard projection | 6.2 | 6.7 |
| Rank this week | TE13 | TE14 |
| Matchup | vs DAL | at HOU |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.0 | 9.2 |
| Last season per game | 8.0 | 8.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 54% | 69% |
| Trade value | — | — |