Brenton StrangeorNoah Fant?

Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.

Our call

Start Brenton Strange

Brenton Strange outscores Noah Fant in 62% of simulations.

Noah Fant still comes out ahead in the other 38%, so Brenton Strange is the better bet, not a sure thing. Brenton Strange projects 1.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Brenton Strange has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (53% more than average to TEs); Noah Fant faces the Atlanta Falcons (10% fewer than average to TEs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Brenton Strange
Floor
2.8
Median
6.8
Ceiling
13.8
Big game (15+):
7%
Dud (under 5):
31%
Noah Fant
Floor
1.2
Median
5.1
Ceiling
13.6
Big game (15+):
8%
Dud (under 5):
50%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatBrenton StrangeTE, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETNoah FantTE, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection7.76.5
PPR projection9.67.8
Standard projection5.95.3
Rank this weekTE16TE18
Matchupat CINvs ATL
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game5.69.5
Last season per game7.94.4
Snap share, last game77%57%
Trade value——