Dalton KincaidorJuwan Johnson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Juwan Johnson
Juwan Johnson outscores Dalton Kincaid in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Dalton Kincaid comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Juwan Johnson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Juwan Johnson projects 0.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Juwan Johnson faces the Atlanta Falcons (10% fewer than average to TEs), Dalton Kincaid faces the New England Patriots (10% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 8.4
- Ceiling
- 18.2
- Big game (15+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 5):
- 25%
- Floor
- 4.0
- Median
- 9.3
- Ceiling
- 17.9
- Big game (15+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 5):
- 16%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dalton KincaidTE, BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Juwan JohnsonTE, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.6 | 10.3 |
| PPR projection | 11.4 | 12.5 |
| Standard projection | 7.8 | 8.0 |
| Rank this week | TE12 | TE9 |
| Matchup | vs NE | vs ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.4 | 13.6 |
| Last season per game | 8.9 | 8.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 67% | 62% |
| Trade value | 7 | 12 |