Mike GesickiorT.J. Hockenson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Mike Gesicki
Mike Gesicki outscores T.J. Hockenson in 55% of simulations.
T.J. Hockenson still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Mike Gesicki is the better bet, not a sure thing. Mike Gesicki projects 1.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. T.J. Hockenson has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (22% more than average to TEs); Mike Gesicki faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (4% fewer than average to TEs). Mike Gesicki still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Mike Gesicki wins 60%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.9
- Median
- 6.6
- Ceiling
- 15.7
- Big game (15+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 5):
- 36%
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 5.7
- Ceiling
- 12.2
- Big game (15+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 5):
- 42%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Mike GesickiTE, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | T.J. HockensonTE, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.9 | 6.5 |
| PPR projection | 9.3 | 8.2 |
| Standard projection | 6.5 | 4.7 |
| Rank this week | TE15 | TE18 |
| Matchup | vs JAX | vs MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.8 | 6.0 |
| Last season per game | 4.7 | 5.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 51% | 85% |
| Trade value | — | — |