Mike GesickiorTravis Kelce?
Week 9 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce outscores Mike Gesicki in 58% of simulations.
Mike Gesicki still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Travis Kelce is the better bet, not a sure thing. Travis Kelce projects 1.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Travis Kelce has the better matchup against the New York Jets (8% more than average to TEs); Mike Gesicki faces the Atlanta Falcons (14% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.4
- Median
- 6.8
- Ceiling
- 14.8
- Big game (15+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 5):
- 34%
- Floor
- 3.2
- Median
- 8.3
- Ceiling
- 16.9
- Big game (15+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 5):
- 23%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Mike GesickiTE, CIN, Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 a.m. ET | Travis KelceTE, KC, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.8 | 9.4 |
| PPR projection | 9.0 | 11.7 |
| Standard projection | 6.7 | 7.2 |
| Rank this week | TE13 | TE9 |
| Matchup | at ATL | vs NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.4 | 9.6 |
| Last season per game | 4.7 | 9.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 68% | 78% |
| Trade value | — | 2 |