David MontgomeryorTony Pollard?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard outscores David Montgomery in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: David Montgomery comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Tony Pollard, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. David Montgomery projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. David Montgomery has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (average to RBs); Tony Pollard faces the Houston Texans (13% fewer than average to RBs). Tony Pollard still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 7.4
- Ceiling
- 17.8
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 39%
- Floor
- 3.4
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 15.3
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 32%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | David MontgomeryRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tony PollardRB, TEN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.0 | 8.9 |
| PPR projection | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| Standard projection | 8.3 | 8.0 |
| Rank this week | RB22 | RB23 |
| Matchup | at TEN | vs HOU |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.2 | 8.6 |
| Last season per game | 9.1 | 10.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 56% | 53% |
| Trade value | — | 5 |