Josh DownsorRoman Wilson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Josh Downs
Josh Downs outscores Roman Wilson in 55% of simulations.
Roman Wilson still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Josh Downs is the better bet, not a sure thing. Josh Downs projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Roman Wilson has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (14% more than average to WRs); Josh Downs faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (6% more than average to WRs). Josh Downs still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Roman Wilson is the pick at 52%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 6.4
- Ceiling
- 12.7
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 45%
- Floor
- 1.3
- Median
- 5.4
- Ceiling
- 15.2
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Josh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Roman WilsonWR, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.2 | 7.1 |
| PPR projection | 9.2 | 8.4 |
| Standard projection | 5.1 | 5.9 |
| Rank this week | WR41 | WR43 |
| Matchup | at PIT | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.2 | 9.4 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 3.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 77% | 31% |
| Trade value | — | — |