Justin HerbertorKyler Murray?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray outscores Justin Herbert in 61% of simulations.
Justin Herbert still comes out ahead in the other 39%, so Kyler Murray is the better bet, not a sure thing. Kyler Murray projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Kyler Murray has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (12% more than average to QBs); Justin Herbert faces the Seattle Seahawks (18% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.9
- Median
- 13.0
- Ceiling
- 21.5
- Big game (25+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 12):
- 43%
- Floor
- 10.1
- Median
- 15.3
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 22%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Justin HerbertQB, LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Kyler MurrayQB, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.8 | 15.8 |
| PPR projection | 13.8 | 15.8 |
| Standard projection | 13.8 | 15.8 |
| Rank this week | QB22 | QB18 |
| Matchup | at SEA | vs MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.3 | 5.0 |
| Last season per game | 17.9 | 15.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |