Quentin JohnstonorTed Hurst III?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Ted Hurst III

Ted Hurst III outscores Quentin Johnston in 51% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Quentin Johnston comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Ted Hurst III, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Ted Hurst III projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Ted Hurst III has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (5% more than average to WRs); Quentin Johnston faces the Seattle Seahawks (19% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Ted Hurst III wins 56%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Quentin Johnston
Floor
2.2
Median
6.0
Ceiling
12.6
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
50%
Ted Hurst III
Floor
2.5
Median
6.2
Ceiling
12.5
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
48%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatQuentin JohnstonWR, LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ETTed Hurst IIIWR, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection6.86.9
PPR projection8.17.9
Standard projection5.46.0
Rank this weekWR46WR44
Matchupat SEAvs GB
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game3.46.4
Last season per game11.2—
Snap share, last game87%75%
Trade value——