Aaron JonesorBucky Irving?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Bucky Irving
Bucky Irving outscores Aaron Jones in 56% of simulations.
Aaron Jones still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Bucky Irving is the better bet, not a sure thing. Bucky Irving projects 1.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Bucky Irving faces the Dallas Cowboys (11% more than average to RBs), Aaron Jones faces the New Orleans Saints (5% more than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.0
- Median
- 9.9
- Ceiling
- 17.0
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 16%
- Floor
- 5.5
- Median
- 10.8
- Ceiling
- 19.2
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 13%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron JonesRB, MIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Bucky IrvingRB, TB, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.5 | 11.8 |
| PPR projection | 11.8 | 13.4 |
| Standard projection | 9.3 | 10.3 |
| Rank this week | RB18 | RB14 |
| Matchup | at NO | at DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.8 | 10.2 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 12.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 73% | 59% |
| Trade value | 9 | 16 |