Aaron JonesorOmarion Hampton?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones outscores Omarion Hampton in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Omarion Hampton comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Aaron Jones, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Aaron Jones projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Aaron Jones has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (21% more than average to RBs); Omarion Hampton faces the Seattle Seahawks (22% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.9
- Median
- 10.0
- Ceiling
- 17.5
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 17%
- Floor
- 4.1
- Median
- 9.4
- Ceiling
- 18.2
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 23%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron JonesRB, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET | Omarion HamptonRB, LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.7 | 10.5 |
| PPR projection | 11.9 | 11.6 |
| Standard projection | 9.5 | 9.4 |
| Rank this week | RB22 | RB24 |
| Matchup | vs MIA | at SEA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.7 | 10.1 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 13.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 80% | 42% |
| Trade value | — | 19 |