Aaron JonesorTyler Allgeier?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones outscores Tyler Allgeier in 58% of simulations.
Tyler Allgeier still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Aaron Jones is the better bet, not a sure thing. Aaron Jones projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Aaron Jones has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (8% more than average to RBs); Tyler Allgeier faces the Los Angeles Rams (13% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 8.1
- Ceiling
- 15.3
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 30%
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 6.4
- Ceiling
- 17.6
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 48%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron JonesRB, MIN, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tyler AllgeierRB, ARI, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.8 | 8.3 |
| PPR projection | 9.9 | 9.2 |
| Standard projection | 7.7 | 7.4 |
| Rank this week | RB28 | RB30 |
| Matchup | at GB | vs LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.4 | 8.8 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 6.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 35% | 96% |
| Trade value | — | — |