Aaron JonesorBraelon Allen?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones outscores Braelon Allen in 59% of simulations.
Braelon Allen still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Aaron Jones is the better bet, not a sure thing. Aaron Jones projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Aaron Jones has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (15% more than average to RBs); Braelon Allen faces the Kansas City Chiefs (13% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 9.4
- Ceiling
- 17.1
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 22%
- Floor
- 2.8
- Median
- 7.7
- Ceiling
- 16.7
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 36%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron JonesRB, MIN, Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 p.m. ET | Braelon AllenRB, NYJ, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.1 | 9.0 |
| PPR projection | 11.3 | 9.7 |
| Standard projection | 8.9 | 8.2 |
| Rank this week | RB21 | RB25 |
| Matchup | vs BUF | at KC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.3 | 11.4 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 3.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 40% | 83% |
| Trade value | — | — |