Aaron JonesorSaquon Barkley?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley outscores Aaron Jones in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Aaron Jones comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Saquon Barkley, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Saquon Barkley projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Aaron Jones has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (14% more than average to RBs); Saquon Barkley faces the New York Giants (6% more than average to RBs). Saquon Barkley still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 9.4
- Ceiling
- 17.1
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 22%
- Floor
- 4.2
- Median
- 9.8
- Ceiling
- 18.9
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 22%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron JonesRB, MIN, Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 p.m. ET | Saquon BarkleyRB, PHI, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.1 | 10.9 |
| PPR projection | 11.3 | 11.8 |
| Standard projection | 8.9 | 10.1 |
| Rank this week | RB19 | RB17 |
| Matchup | vs BUF | vs NYG |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.3 | 7.8 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 40% | 32% |
| Trade value | — | 6 |