Ollie Gordon IIorTyler Allgeier?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Tyler Allgeier
Tyler Allgeier outscores Ollie Gordon II in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Ollie Gordon II comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Tyler Allgeier, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Ollie Gordon II projects 0.4 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Ollie Gordon II has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (18% more than average to RBs); Tyler Allgeier faces the Detroit Lions (7% fewer than average to RBs). Tyler Allgeier still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 14.6
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
- Floor
- 1.8
- Median
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 12.5
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ollie Gordon IIRB, MIA, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tyler AllgeierRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.9 | 6.5 |
| PPR projection | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| Standard projection | 6.4 | 5.7 |
| Rank this week | RB32 | RB34 |
| Matchup | vs CIN | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.2 | 6.4 |
| Last season per game | 3.0 | 6.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 56% | 55% |
| Trade value | — | — |