Chris Rodriguez Jr.orTyler Allgeier?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Start Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. outscores Tyler Allgeier in 57% of simulations.

Tyler Allgeier still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Chris Rodriguez Jr. is the better bet, not a sure thing. Chris Rodriguez Jr. projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Chris Rodriguez Jr. faces the Cincinnati Bengals (19% more than average to RBs), Tyler Allgeier faces the New York Giants (15% more than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Chris Rodriguez Jr. wins 64%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Floor
2.3
Median
6.2
Ceiling
12.8
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
48%
Tyler Allgeier
Floor
1.7
Median
5.2
Ceiling
11.9
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
57%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatChris Rodriguez Jr.RB, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETTyler AllgeierRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection7.06.2
PPR projection7.17.1
Standard projection7.05.2
Rank this weekRB34RB37
Matchupat CINat NYG
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game4.44.6
Last season per game7.56.8
Snap share, last game21%36%
Trade value——