Ollie Gordon IIorWoody Marks?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Woody Marks
Woody Marks outscores Ollie Gordon II in 57% of simulations.
Ollie Gordon II still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Woody Marks is the better bet, not a sure thing. Woody Marks projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Ollie Gordon II has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (18% more than average to RBs); Woody Marks faces the Tennessee Titans (average to RBs). Woody Marks still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 14.6
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 6.6
- Ceiling
- 14.9
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 45%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ollie Gordon IIRB, MIA, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Woody MarksRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.9 | 7.8 |
| PPR projection | 7.5 | 8.5 |
| Standard projection | 6.4 | 7.0 |
| Rank this week | RB32 | RB30 |
| Matchup | vs CIN | at TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.2 | 6.8 |
| Last season per game | 3.0 | 8.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 56% | 44% |
| Trade value | — | — |