Emanuel WilsonorOllie Gordon II?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Ollie Gordon II
Ollie Gordon II outscores Emanuel Wilson in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Emanuel Wilson comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Ollie Gordon II, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Emanuel Wilson projects 1.0 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Ollie Gordon II has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (18% more than average to RBs); Emanuel Wilson faces the San Francisco 49ers (8% more than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.6
- Median
- 5.0
- Ceiling
- 19.1
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 56%
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 14.6
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Emanuel WilsonRB, SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET | Ollie Gordon IIRB, MIA, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.9 | 6.9 |
| PPR projection | 8.3 | 7.5 |
| Standard projection | 7.4 | 6.4 |
| Rank this week | RB29 | RB32 |
| Matchup | vs SF | vs CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.1 | 10.2 |
| Last season per game | 5.1 | 3.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 60% | 56% |
| Trade value | — | — |