Emanuel WilsonorRico Dowdle?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Rico Dowdle
Rico Dowdle outscores Emanuel Wilson in 55% of simulations.
Emanuel Wilson still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Rico Dowdle is the better bet, not a sure thing. Rico Dowdle projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Emanuel Wilson has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (7% more than average to RBs); Rico Dowdle faces the Indianapolis Colts (2% fewer than average to RBs). Rico Dowdle still wins more often despite that. Rico Dowdle is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.6
- Median
- 5.0
- Ceiling
- 18.8
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 56%
- Floor
- 0.4
- Median
- 7.0
- Ceiling
- 18.1
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 44%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Emanuel WilsonRB, SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET | Rico DowdleRB, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.8 | 8.6 |
| PPR projection | 8.3 | 9.5 |
| Standard projection | 7.4 | 7.6 |
| Rank this week | RB27 | RB23 |
| Matchup | vs SF | vs IND |
| Injury | None | Questionable |
| 2026 points per game | 9.1 | 4.3 |
| Last season per game | 5.1 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 60% | 26% |
| Trade value | — | — |