Alvin KamaraorTyler Allgeier?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara outscores Tyler Allgeier in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Tyler Allgeier comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Alvin Kamara, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tyler Allgeier projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Tyler Allgeier has the better matchup against the New York Giants (15% more than average to RBs); Alvin Kamara faces the Atlanta Falcons (12% fewer than average to RBs). Alvin Kamara still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Alvin Kamara wins 55%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 10.6
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 58%
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 5.2
- Ceiling
- 11.9
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 57%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Alvin KamaraRB, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | Tyler AllgeierRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.0 | 6.2 |
| PPR projection | 7.4 | 7.1 |
| Standard projection | 4.7 | 5.2 |
| Rank this week | RB38 | RB37 |
| Matchup | vs ATL | at NYG |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| Last season per game | 7.7 | 6.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 32% | 36% |
| Trade value | — | — |