Alvin KamaraorEmanuel Wilson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara outscores Emanuel Wilson in 60% of simulations.
Emanuel Wilson still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Alvin Kamara is the better bet, not a sure thing. Alvin Kamara projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Emanuel Wilson has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (7% more than average to RBs); Alvin Kamara faces the Minnesota Vikings (18% fewer than average to RBs). Alvin Kamara still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 6.8
- Ceiling
- 14.7
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 42%
- Floor
- 0.6
- Median
- 5.0
- Ceiling
- 18.8
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 56%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Alvin KamaraRB, NO, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Emanuel WilsonRB, SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.9 | 7.8 |
| PPR projection | 9.3 | 8.3 |
| Standard projection | 6.4 | 7.4 |
| Rank this week | RB33 | RB34 |
| Matchup | vs MIN | vs SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.9 | 9.1 |
| Last season per game | 7.7 | 5.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 38% | 60% |
| Trade value | — | — |