Aaron JonesorAlvin Kamara?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones outscores Alvin Kamara in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Alvin Kamara comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Aaron Jones, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Alvin Kamara projects 0.5 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Alvin Kamara has the better matchup against the Carolina Panthers (19% more than average to RBs); Aaron Jones faces the Green Bay Packers (8% more than average to RBs). Aaron Jones still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 8.1
- Ceiling
- 15.3
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 30%
- Floor
- 3.0
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 17.3
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 33%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron JonesRB, MIN, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Alvin KamaraRB, NO, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.8 | 9.3 |
| PPR projection | 9.9 | 11.2 |
| Standard projection | 7.7 | 7.4 |
| Rank this week | RB28 | RB25 |
| Matchup | at GB | vs CAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.4 | 8.7 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 7.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 35% | 49% |
| Trade value | — | — |