Alvin KamaraorDavid Montgomery?
Week 6 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara outscores David Montgomery in 55% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: David Montgomery comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Alvin Kamara, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Alvin Kamara projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Alvin Kamara has the better matchup against the New York Giants (12% more than average to RBs); David Montgomery faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (23% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Alvin Kamara wins 50%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 7.1
- Ceiling
- 15.9
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 40%
- Floor
- 1.9
- Median
- 6.4
- Ceiling
- 15.4
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 47%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Alvin KamaraRB, NO, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | David MontgomeryRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.3 | 7.8 |
| PPR projection | 9.9 | 8.4 |
| Standard projection | 6.7 | 7.1 |
| Rank this week | RB21 | RB24 |
| Matchup | at NYG | at JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.8 | 8.4 |
| Last season per game | 7.7 | 9.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 27% | 14% |
| Trade value | — | 4 |