David MontgomeryorKenny Gainwell?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean David Montgomery
David Montgomery outscores Kenny Gainwell in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Kenny Gainwell comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean David Montgomery, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. David Montgomery projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Kenny Gainwell has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (11% more than average to RBs); David Montgomery faces the Tennessee Titans (average to RBs). David Montgomery still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, David Montgomery wins 57%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 7.4
- Ceiling
- 17.8
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 39%
- Floor
- 2.0
- Median
- 7.1
- Ceiling
- 18.1
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 42%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | David MontgomeryRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kenny GainwellRB, TB, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.0 | 8.7 |
| PPR projection | 9.8 | 10.4 |
| Standard projection | 8.3 | 6.9 |
| Rank this week | RB22 | RB25 |
| Matchup | at TEN | at DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.2 | 4.3 |
| Last season per game | 9.1 | 10.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 56% | 43% |
| Trade value | — | — |