Aaron JonesorDavid Montgomery?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones outscores David Montgomery in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: David Montgomery comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Aaron Jones, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. David Montgomery projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Aaron Jones has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (8% more than average to RBs); David Montgomery faces the Cleveland Browns (average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 8.1
- Ceiling
- 15.3
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 30%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 7.3
- Ceiling
- 17.9
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 40%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron JonesRB, MIN, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | David MontgomeryRB, HOU, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.8 | 9.0 |
| PPR projection | 9.9 | 9.8 |
| Standard projection | 7.7 | 8.3 |
| Rank this week | RB30 | RB29 |
| Matchup | at GB | at CLE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.4 | 8.4 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 9.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 35% | 14% |
| Trade value | — | — |