Aaron JonesorDavid Montgomery?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones outscores David Montgomery in 56% of simulations.
David Montgomery still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Aaron Jones is the better bet, not a sure thing. Both project 10.9 half-PPR points in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Aaron Jones faces the Miami Dolphins (21% more than average to RBs), David Montgomery faces the Dallas Cowboys (15% more than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.1
- Median
- 10.3
- Ceiling
- 17.7
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 15%
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 9.1
- Ceiling
- 21.2
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Aaron JonesRB, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET | David MontgomeryRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.9 | 10.9 |
| PPR projection | 12.1 | 11.9 |
| Standard projection | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| Rank this week | RB18 | RB19 |
| Matchup | vs MIA | vs DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.7 | 12.2 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 9.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 80% | 63% |
| Trade value | 3 | 5 |