Alvin KamaraorOllie Gordon II?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara outscores Ollie Gordon II in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Ollie Gordon II comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Alvin Kamara, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Alvin Kamara projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Ollie Gordon II has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (17% more than average to RBs); Alvin Kamara faces the Minnesota Vikings (18% fewer than average to RBs). Alvin Kamara still wins more often despite that. Alvin Kamara is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.0
- Median
- 6.2
- Ceiling
- 14.0
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 49%
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 14.6
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Alvin KamaraRB, NO, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Ollie Gordon IIRB, MIA, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.1 | 6.9 |
| PPR projection | 8.4 | 7.4 |
| Standard projection | 5.8 | 6.4 |
| Rank this week | RB31 | RB32 |
| Matchup | vs MIN | vs CIN |
| Injury | Questionable | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.9 | 10.2 |
| Last season per game | 7.7 | 3.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 38% | 56% |
| Trade value | — | — |