Blake CorumorTyler Allgeier?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Lean Blake Corum

Blake Corum outscores Tyler Allgeier in 50% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Tyler Allgeier comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Blake Corum, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Blake Corum projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Tyler Allgeier has the better matchup against the New York Giants (15% more than average to RBs); Blake Corum faces the Philadelphia Eagles (3% more than average to RBs). Blake Corum still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Blake Corum
Floor
1.5
Median
5.1
Ceiling
13.5
Big game (20+):
3%
Dud (under 6):
57%
Tyler Allgeier
Floor
1.7
Median
5.2
Ceiling
11.9
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
57%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatBlake CorumRB, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETTyler AllgeierRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection6.56.2
PPR projection6.97.1
Standard projection6.15.2
Rank this weekRB35RB37
Matchupat PHIat NYG
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game5.94.6
Last season per game7.06.8
Snap share, last game29%36%
Trade value——