Aaron JonesorOllie Gordon II?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones outscores Ollie Gordon II in 57% of simulations.
Ollie Gordon II still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Aaron Jones is the better bet, not a sure thing. Aaron Jones projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. The matchups don't separate them: Aaron Jones faces the Green Bay Packers (8% more than average to RBs), Ollie Gordon II faces the Indianapolis Colts (6% more than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 8.1
- Ceiling
- 15.3
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 30%
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 7.0
- Ceiling
- 17.1
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 42%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron JonesRB, MIN, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Ollie Gordon IIRB, MIA, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.8 | 8.3 |
| PPR projection | 9.9 | 8.7 |
| Standard projection | 7.7 | 7.9 |
| Rank this week | RB28 | RB31 |
| Matchup | at GB | at IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.4 | 10.9 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 3.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 35% | 72% |
| Trade value | — | — |