Alvin KamaraorChris Rodriguez Jr.?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. outscores Alvin Kamara in 57% of simulations.
Alvin Kamara still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Chris Rodriguez Jr. is the better bet, not a sure thing. Chris Rodriguez Jr. projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (19% more than average to RBs); Alvin Kamara faces the Atlanta Falcons (12% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Alvin Kamara is the pick at 52%; in Standard leagues, Chris Rodriguez Jr. wins 66%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 10.6
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 58%
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 6.2
- Ceiling
- 12.8
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 48%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Alvin KamaraRB, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.0 | 7.0 |
| PPR projection | 7.4 | 7.1 |
| Standard projection | 4.7 | 7.0 |
| Rank this week | RB38 | RB34 |
| Matchup | vs ATL | at CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.7 | 4.4 |
| Last season per game | 7.7 | 7.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 32% | 21% |
| Trade value | — | — |