Alvin KamaraorChris Rodriguez Jr.?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara outscores Chris Rodriguez Jr. in 58% of simulations.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Alvin Kamara is the better bet, not a sure thing. Alvin Kamara projects 1.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Alvin Kamara has the better matchup against the Carolina Panthers (19% more than average to RBs); Chris Rodriguez Jr. faces the Tennessee Titans (average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Alvin Kamara wins 65%; in Standard leagues, Alvin Kamara wins 51%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.0
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 17.3
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 33%
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 6.6
- Ceiling
- 13.7
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 44%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Alvin KamaraRB, NO, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB, JAX, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.3 | 7.5 |
| PPR projection | 11.2 | 7.7 |
| Standard projection | 7.4 | 7.2 |
| Rank this week | RB26 | RB36 |
| Matchup | vs CAR | at TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.7 | 6.5 |
| Last season per game | 7.7 | 7.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 49% | 45% |
| Trade value | — | — |