Chris Rodriguez Jr.orOllie Gordon II?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. outscores Ollie Gordon II in 56% of simulations.
Ollie Gordon II still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Chris Rodriguez Jr. is the better bet, not a sure thing. Chris Rodriguez Jr. projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Ollie Gordon II has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (18% more than average to RBs); Chris Rodriguez Jr. faces the Philadelphia Eagles (6% more than average to RBs). Chris Rodriguez Jr. still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.4
- Median
- 6.3
- Ceiling
- 13.1
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 46%
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 14.6
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB, JAX, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET | Ollie Gordon IIRB, MIA, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.2 | 6.9 |
| PPR projection | 7.3 | 7.5 |
| Standard projection | 7.2 | 6.4 |
| Rank this week | RB31 | RB32 |
| Matchup | vs PHI | vs CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.7 | 10.2 |
| Last season per game | 7.5 | 3.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 25% | 56% |
| Trade value | — | — |