Bam KnightorJ.K. Dobbins?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start J.K. Dobbins
J.K. Dobbins outscores Bam Knight in 68% of simulations.
Bam Knight still comes out ahead in the other 32%, so J.K. Dobbins is the better bet, not a sure thing. J.K. Dobbins projects 2.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Bam Knight has the better matchup against the New York Giants (15% more than average to RBs); J.K. Dobbins faces the San Francisco 49ers (5% more than average to RBs). J.K. Dobbins still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 13.1
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 54%
- Floor
- 4.2
- Median
- 8.3
- Ceiling
- 14.3
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 25%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bam KnightRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | J.K. DobbinsRB, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.7 | 8.9 |
| PPR projection | 7.6 | 9.4 |
| Standard projection | 5.9 | 8.5 |
| Rank this week | RB30 | RB26 |
| Matchup | at NYG | at SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 2.4 | 4.3 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 11.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 6% | 49% |
| Trade value | — | — |