J.K. DobbinsorRico Dowdle?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean J.K. Dobbins
J.K. Dobbins outscores Rico Dowdle in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Rico Dowdle comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean J.K. Dobbins, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Rico Dowdle projects 0.4 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. J.K. Dobbins has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (5% more than average to RBs); Rico Dowdle faces the Cleveland Browns (5% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.2
- Median
- 8.3
- Ceiling
- 14.3
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 25%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 7.3
- Ceiling
- 18.2
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 40%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | J.K. DobbinsRB, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Rico DowdleRB, PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.9 | 9.3 |
| PPR projection | 9.4 | 10.4 |
| Standard projection | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| Rank this week | RB32 | RB29 |
| Matchup | at SF | at CLE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Last season per game | 11.0 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 49% | 26% |
| Trade value | — | 1 |