Ashton JeantyorRico Dowdle?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Ashton Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty outscores Rico Dowdle in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Rico Dowdle comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Ashton Jeanty, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Ashton Jeanty projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Rico Dowdle has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (13% more than average to RBs); Ashton Jeanty faces the Seattle Seahawks (14% fewer than average to RBs). Ashton Jeanty still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.6
- Median
- 9.6
- Ceiling
- 20.6
- Big game (20+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 6):
- 25%
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 8.5
- Ceiling
- 21.0
- Big game (20+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 6):
- 34%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ashton JeantyRB, LV, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET | Rico DowdleRB, PIT, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.0 | 10.7 |
| PPR projection | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Standard projection | 9.1 | 9.4 |
| Rank this week | RB15 | RB17 |
| Matchup | vs SEA | at CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.1 | 7.6 |
| Last season per game | 12.8 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 64% | 47% |
| Trade value | 20 | 4 |