Ashton JeantyorDerrick Henry?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry outscores Ashton Jeanty in 64% of simulations.
Ashton Jeanty still comes out ahead in the other 36%, so Derrick Henry is the better bet, not a sure thing. Derrick Henry projects 4.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Derrick Henry faces the Atlanta Falcons (10% fewer than average to RBs), Ashton Jeanty faces the New England Patriots (13% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Derrick Henry wins 59%; in Standard leagues, Derrick Henry wins 69%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.2
- Median
- 11.3
- Ceiling
- 24.2
- Big game (20+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
- Floor
- 6.5
- Median
- 15.2
- Ceiling
- 30.2
- Big game (20+):
- 32%
- Dud (under 6):
- 9%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ashton JeantyRB, LV, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.9 | 17.0 |
| PPR projection | 14.7 | 17.6 |
| Standard projection | 11.1 | 16.4 |
| Rank this week | RB10 | RB6 |
| Matchup | at NE | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.1 | 21.8 |
| Last season per game | 12.8 | 16.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 67% | 62% |
| Trade value | 34 | 68 |