Ashton JeantyorKyren Williams?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Start Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams outscores Ashton Jeanty in 60% of simulations.

Ashton Jeanty still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Kyren Williams is the better bet, not a sure thing. Kyren Williams projects 2.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Kyren Williams has the better matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles (3% more than average to RBs); Ashton Jeanty faces the Kansas City Chiefs (12% fewer than average to RBs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Ashton Jeanty
Floor
4.2
Median
11.4
Ceiling
24.6
Big game (20+):
18%
Dud (under 6):
19%
Kyren Williams
Floor
7.9
Median
14.3
Ceiling
23.7
Big game (20+):
21%
Dud (under 6):
4%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatAshton JeantyRB, LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ETKyren WilliamsRB, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection13.015.5
PPR projection14.716.9
Standard projection11.314.0
Rank this weekRB11RB7
Matchupvs KCat PHI
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game16.315.8
Last season per game12.814.4
Snap share, last game84%71%
Trade value3140