Christian McCaffreyorKyren Williams?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey outscores Kyren Williams in 64% of simulations.
Kyren Williams still comes out ahead in the other 36%, so Christian McCaffrey is the better bet, not a sure thing. Christian McCaffrey projects 3.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Kyren Williams has the better matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles (3% more than average to RBs); Christian McCaffrey faces the Denver Broncos (7% fewer than average to RBs). Christian McCaffrey still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Christian McCaffrey wins 59%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.9
- Median
- 18.1
- Ceiling
- 29.5
- Big game (20+):
- 40%
- Dud (under 6):
- 1%
- Floor
- 7.9
- Median
- 14.3
- Ceiling
- 23.7
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 4%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Christian McCaffreyRB, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Kyren WilliamsRB, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.9 | 15.5 |
| PPR projection | 21.4 | 16.9 |
| Standard projection | 16.4 | 14.0 |
| Rank this week | RB5 | RB7 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.2 | 15.8 |
| Last season per game | 21.5 | 14.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 83% | 71% |
| Trade value | 70 | 40 |