Jonathan TaylororKyren Williams?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Jonathan Taylor
Jonathan Taylor outscores Kyren Williams in 60% of simulations.
Kyren Williams still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Jonathan Taylor is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jonathan Taylor projects 4.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Jonathan Taylor faces the Washington Commanders (4% more than average to RBs), Kyren Williams faces the Philadelphia Eagles (3% more than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.0
- Median
- 17.5
- Ceiling
- 35.5
- Big game (20+):
- 42%
- Dud (under 6):
- 7%
- Floor
- 7.9
- Median
- 14.3
- Ceiling
- 23.7
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 4%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jonathan TaylorRB, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET | Kyren WilliamsRB, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 19.8 | 15.5 |
| PPR projection | 21.3 | 16.9 |
| Standard projection | 18.4 | 14.0 |
| Rank this week | RB3 | RB7 |
| Matchup | at WAS | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 19.7 | 15.8 |
| Last season per game | 20.0 | 14.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 85% | 71% |
| Trade value | 68 | 40 |