Bijan RobinsonorKyren Williams?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Bijan Robinson
Bijan Robinson outscores Kyren Williams in 58% of simulations.
Kyren Williams still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Bijan Robinson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Bijan Robinson projects 2.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Kyren Williams has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (15% more than average to RBs); Bijan Robinson faces the Baltimore Ravens (2% fewer than average to RBs). Bijan Robinson still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.4
- Median
- 20.2
- Ceiling
- 36.1
- Big game (20+):
- 51%
- Dud (under 6):
- 3%
- Floor
- 9.2
- Median
- 17.4
- Ceiling
- 29.4
- Big game (20+):
- 38%
- Dud (under 6):
- 2%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bijan RobinsonRB, ATL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET | Kyren WilliamsRB, LAR, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 21.7 | 18.9 |
| PPR projection | 23.7 | 20.9 |
| Standard projection | 19.8 | 16.9 |
| Rank this week | RB2 | RB4 |
| Matchup | vs BAL | vs BUF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 24.6 | 19.8 |
| Last season per game | 19.5 | 14.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 60% | 83% |
| Trade value | 99 | 62 |