Christian McCaffreyorJames Cook?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey outscores James Cook in 65% of simulations.
James Cook still comes out ahead in the other 35%, so Christian McCaffrey is the better bet, not a sure thing. Christian McCaffrey projects 3.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Christian McCaffrey faces the Denver Broncos (7% fewer than average to RBs), James Cook faces the New England Patriots (13% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Christian McCaffrey wins 58%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.9
- Median
- 18.1
- Ceiling
- 29.5
- Big game (20+):
- 40%
- Dud (under 6):
- 1%
- Floor
- 6.2
- Median
- 13.8
- Ceiling
- 25.7
- Big game (20+):
- 24%
- Dud (under 6):
- 9%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Christian McCaffreyRB, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | James CookRB, BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.9 | 15.4 |
| PPR projection | 21.4 | 16.2 |
| Standard projection | 16.4 | 14.7 |
| Rank this week | RB5 | RB8 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | vs NE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.2 | 16.1 |
| Last season per game | 21.5 | 16.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 83% | 67% |
| Trade value | 70 | 50 |