Christian McCaffreyorJames Cook?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Start Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey outscores James Cook in 65% of simulations.

James Cook still comes out ahead in the other 35%, so Christian McCaffrey is the better bet, not a sure thing. Christian McCaffrey projects 3.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Christian McCaffrey faces the Denver Broncos (7% fewer than average to RBs), James Cook faces the New England Patriots (13% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Christian McCaffrey wins 58%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Christian McCaffrey
Floor
9.9
Median
18.1
Ceiling
29.5
Big game (20+):
40%
Dud (under 6):
1%
James Cook
Floor
6.2
Median
13.8
Ceiling
25.7
Big game (20+):
24%
Dud (under 6):
9%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatChristian McCaffreyRB, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ETJames CookRB, BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection18.915.4
PPR projection21.416.2
Standard projection16.414.7
Rank this weekRB5RB8
Matchupvs DENvs NE
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game17.216.1
Last season per game21.516.8
Snap share, last game83%67%
Trade value7050