Christian McCaffreyorPuka Nacua?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Start Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey outscores Puka Nacua in 60% of simulations.
Puka Nacua still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Christian McCaffrey is the better bet, not a sure thing. Christian McCaffrey projects 2.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Christian McCaffrey faces the Denver Broncos (6% fewer than average to RBs), Puka Nacua faces the Philadelphia Eagles (7% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Christian McCaffrey wins 55%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.0
- Median
- 18.5
- Ceiling
- 30.3
- Big game (20+):
- 42%
- Dud (under 6):
- 1%
- Floor
- 7.1
- Median
- 15.4
- Ceiling
- 28.5
- Big game (20+):
- 30%
- Dud (under 6):
- 6%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Christian McCaffreyRB, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Puka NacuaWR, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 19.3 | 17.2 |
| PPR projection | 21.9 | 20.8 |
| Standard projection | 16.7 | 13.5 |
| Rank this week | RB4 | WR2 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.2 | 9.9 |
| Last season per game | 21.5 | 19.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 83% | 70% |
| Trade value | 77 | 64 |