Ja'Marr ChaseorJaxon Smith-Njigba?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba outscores Ja'Marr Chase in 57% of simulations.
Ja'Marr Chase still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 1.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. The matchups don't separate them: Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces the Las Vegas Raiders (9% more than average to WRs), Ja'Marr Chase faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (2% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.2
- Median
- 16.7
- Ceiling
- 32.3
- Big game (20+):
- 38%
- Dud (under 6):
- 7%
- Floor
- 9.6
- Median
- 19.1
- Ceiling
- 31.9
- Big game (20+):
- 45%
- Dud (under 6):
- 2%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ja'Marr ChaseWR, CIN, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.5 | 20.2 |
| PPR projection | 22.4 | 24.1 |
| Standard projection | 14.6 | 16.2 |
| Rank this week | WR3 | WR2 |
| Matchup | vs PIT | at LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.6 | 21.8 |
| Last season per game | 15.7 | 17.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 76% |
| Trade value | 79 | 77 |