Ja'Marr ChaseorJaxon Smith-Njigba?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba outscores Ja'Marr Chase in 71% of simulations.
Ja'Marr Chase still comes out ahead in the other 29%, so Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 6.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces the Los Angeles Chargers (8% fewer than average to WRs), Ja'Marr Chase faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (2% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.7
- Median
- 14.1
- Ceiling
- 28.0
- Big game (20+):
- 27%
- Dud (under 6):
- 11%
- Floor
- 11.5
- Median
- 21.4
- Ceiling
- 34.8
- Big game (20+):
- 56%
- Dud (under 6):
- 1%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ja'Marr ChaseWR, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.7 | 22.5 |
| PPR projection | 19.3 | 26.3 |
| Standard projection | 12.2 | 18.7 |
| Rank this week | WR5 | WR1 |
| Matchup | vs JAX | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.2 | 30.2 |
| Last season per game | 15.7 | 17.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 87% |
| Trade value | 48 | 99 |