Jaxon Smith-NjigbaorPuka Nacua?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba outscores Puka Nacua in 65% of simulations.
Puka Nacua still comes out ahead in the other 35%, so Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 4.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces the Los Angeles Chargers (8% fewer than average to WRs), Puka Nacua faces the Philadelphia Eagles (7% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.8
- Median
- 20.3
- Ceiling
- 33.0
- Big game (20+):
- 51%
- Dud (under 6):
- 1%
- Floor
- 7.1
- Median
- 15.4
- Ceiling
- 28.5
- Big game (20+):
- 30%
- Dud (under 6):
- 6%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Puka NacuaWR, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 21.3 | 17.2 |
| PPR projection | 25.0 | 20.8 |
| Standard projection | 17.6 | 13.5 |
| Rank this week | WR1 | WR2 |
| Matchup | vs LAC | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 30.2 | 9.9 |
| Last season per game | 17.7 | 19.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 87% | 70% |
| Trade value | 97 | 64 |