Jahmyr GibbsorJaxon Smith-Njigba?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba outscores Jahmyr Gibbs in 56% of simulations.
Jahmyr Gibbs still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the better matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders (9% more than average to WRs); Jahmyr Gibbs faces the New England Patriots (15% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Jahmyr Gibbs is the pick at 52%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.3
- Median
- 17.4
- Ceiling
- 34.4
- Big game (20+):
- 41%
- Dud (under 6):
- 7%
- Floor
- 9.6
- Median
- 19.1
- Ceiling
- 31.9
- Big game (20+):
- 45%
- Dud (under 6):
- 2%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jahmyr GibbsRB, DET, Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 a.m. ET | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 19.3 | 20.2 |
| PPR projection | 21.1 | 24.1 |
| Standard projection | 17.5 | 16.2 |
| Rank this week | RB3 | WR2 |
| Matchup | vs NE | at LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 24.0 | 21.8 |
| Last season per game | 19.3 | 17.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 68% | 76% |
| Trade value | 100 | 77 |