Amon-Ra St. BrownorPuka Nacua?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Puka Nacua
Puka Nacua outscores Amon-Ra St. Brown in 56% of simulations.
Amon-Ra St. Brown still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Puka Nacua is the better bet, not a sure thing. Puka Nacua projects 1.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Puka Nacua has the better matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles (7% fewer than average to WRs); Amon-Ra St. Brown faces the Carolina Panthers (19% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.6
- Median
- 13.7
- Ceiling
- 27.9
- Big game (20+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 6):
- 11%
- Floor
- 7.1
- Median
- 15.4
- Ceiling
- 28.5
- Big game (20+):
- 30%
- Dud (under 6):
- 6%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR, DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET | Puka NacuaWR, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.5 | 17.2 |
| PPR projection | 18.6 | 20.8 |
| Standard projection | 12.3 | 13.5 |
| Rank this week | WR5 | WR2 |
| Matchup | at CAR | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 21.4 | 9.9 |
| Last season per game | 15.6 | 19.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 74% | 70% |
| Trade value | 61 | 64 |